"Gettin' Zoney With It"
Even I was starting to have trouble keeping track of my favorite team’s current and future roster, so I pulled a “Zonis” and created a long roster list so I could see what the heart of the 2008-10 A’s might actually look like. Here it is, with the players who don’t figure to start 2008 with Oakland in parentheses and their 2008 Opening Day age included:
1B Daric Barton (Chris Carter, 21)
2B Mark Ellis
SS Bobby Crosby
3B Eric Chavez / Jack Hannahan
OF Travis Buck (Ryan Sweeney, 23)
OF Chris Denorfia (Aaron Cunningham, 21)
OF Mark Kotsay (Carlos Gonzalez, 22)
C Kurt Suzuki
DH Jack Cust
SP/DL Rich Harden
SP Joe Blanton
SP Chad Gaudin
SP Justin Duchscherer
SP Dana Eveland
SP Dan Meyer
(P Greg Smith, 24)
(P Andrew Bailey, 23)
(P Gio Gonzalez, 22)
(P Fautino De Los Santos, 22)
(P James Simmons, 21)
(P Trevor Cahill, 20)
(P Brett Anderson, 19)
RP Huston Street
RP Andrew Brown
RP Alan Embree
RP Jerry Blevins
RP Santiago Casilla
RP Kiko Calero
(RP Henry Rodriguez)
What stands out, of course, is that while the 2008 team should be proud if they just finish at .500, the young pitching is simply stacked. We’ll see the ones who have failed in big league cups of coffee first (Meyer, Eveland), with one of the lowest-ceiling guys next (Smith), and then it just gets better and better, with six – count ‘em six – more really young and really promising prospects in Bailey, Gonzalez, De Los Santos, Simmons, Cahill, and Anderson.
I think Beane is gunning to be back in true contention in 2009. Why? Because I think Buck and Barton are truly special, because Denorfia and Suzuki could prove to be truly solid come 2009, because Carlos Gonzalez has a real chance to be another impact hitter by 2009, because as the best and readiest of the young pitchers emerge the rotation will be back to superior form come 2009 – and last but certainly not least, because the A’s are now deep enough in legitimate young starters that if Beane deems it necessary to trade for a new SS (or new any position), he actually has the trade chips to go out and do it. Not to mention the payroll flexibility to explore a 2009 free agent market that figures to be superior to this Winter’s crop.
The Angels had better enjoy 2008, because when the A’s rebuild they rebuild differently than most teams: Before you even realize they’re rebuilding, they’ve already gotten the permits and laid the foundation, and are on to looking at what color they want for the trim.
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If Henry Rodriguez jumps from low-A to MLB
in one offseason, I'll eat my hat. Publicly. (I'm assuming this is a typo of some kind.)
Also, as part of the inexorable Alex Arnold Leon campaign, I'm lobbying for his inclusion (he's 19) in the parenthesized dudes.
Someone over at Minorleagueball did a complete list of the A's pitching prospects. It's a pretty impressive list. While any one guy is probably no more than 50-50 to be a big league regular (and many are much less likely than that), the A's have enough quantity that they should be able to construct a very strong rotation in the next three seasons. I'll repost the list here in a bit.
by PaulThomas on Jan 4, 2008 9:36 AM PST 0 recs
Leon
I saw that Leon got an invite to Spring Training with the big league club. Interesting.
by gojohn10 on
Jan 4, 2008 9:41 AM PST
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I thought, maybe mistakenly, that
he had to be on the major league roster - maybe I thought he was a Rule 5. You have to forgive me that acquiring 2 Gonzalez', a Rodriguez, and 3 Garcias (all the same one, of course) have caused my head to spin and not land quite center.
So is Rodriguez under no restrictions, like any ordinary minor leaguer?
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 9:47 AM PST
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40 man
Rodriguez has to be on the 40 man or be subject to the rule 5. Are you thinking about Gonzales, the Rule 5 guy we picked up this year?
by BlameChannel53 on
Jan 4, 2008 10:06 AM PST
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I was -
You see, THIS is why Billy only gets white guys. Like Chavez.
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 10:17 AM PST
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Let's clear this up
Fernando HERNANDEZ, Rule 5 guy-- MLB roster or he has to be returned to ChiTown.
Carlos GONZALEZ, on the 40-man roster. He has, IIRC, 2 options remaining, meaning he can be in the minors until the start of 2010.
Gio GONZALEZ, not on the 40-man roster.
Henry Alberto RODRIGUEZ, just added to the 40 man roster. He has four options remaining if I read the rule correctly, meaning he can be in the minors until the start of 2012.
Hopefully that was of some assistance.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 10:26 AM PST
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Oops
I said Gonzalez instead of Hernandez. I haven't had enough caffeine yet this morning.
by BlameChannel53 on
Jan 4, 2008 10:32 AM PST
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PT
- Where does Chris Denorfia land on this list? And if Dan Meyer is on this list, why isn't Denorfia?
- Is Dallas Braden out of Beane's "Master Plan"?
----------------------------------------------------
- Carlos Gonzalez, OF, Grade B+
- Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Grade B+
- Fautino De Los Santos, RHP, Grade B+
- Daric Barton, 1B, Grade B+
- Brett Anderson, LHP, Grade B+
- Chris Carter, 1B, Grade B+
- James Simmons, RHP, Grade B
- Henry Alberto Rodriguez, RHP, Grade B
- Trevor Cahill, RHP, Grade B-
- Aaron Cunningham, OF, Grade B-
- Corey Brown, OF, Grade B-
- Ryan Sweeney, OF, Grade C+
- Andrew Bailey, RHP, Grade B-
- Sean Doolittle, 1B, Grade B-
- Javier Herrera, OF, Grade C+
- Dan Meyer, LHP, Grade C+
- Greg Smith, LHP, Grade C+
- Sam Demel, RHP, Grade C+
- Andrew Carignan, RHP, Grade C+
- Grant Desme, OF, Grade C+
- Travis Banwart, RHP, Grade C+
- Josh Horton, SS, Grade C+
- Jermaine Mitchell, OF, Grade C
------------------------------------------------
- Last Question for Anyone: Are we all just pawns in Billy Beane's little GAME?
by Colorado Fan on
Jan 4, 2008 11:06 AM PST
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Braden
All the guys on that list still qualify as prospects, Braden does not.
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 11:12 AM PST
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IP / AB's
Is that based solely on IP in the MLB?
- Dallas Braden (24) - 72.1 IP
- Ryan Sweeney (23) - 80 AB's
- Dan Meyer (26) - 18.1 IP (Broke into the BIGS in 2004)
- Dana Eveland (24) - 41.1 IP
- Daric Barton (22) - 72 AB's
- Chris Denorfia (27) - 144 AB's
Is there an the official cutoff (IP, AB's, Age) for pitching prospects and hitting prospects for Sickels, BA, and BP?
by Colorado Fan on
Jan 4, 2008 11:26 AM PST
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Cut-offs
50 IP
150 AB
Service time (not sure exactly how long)
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 11:32 AM PST
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Yeah...
But how many days?
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 1:58 PM PST
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Denorfia is over the number of at-bats
required to be a prospect; Braden is over the number of innings pitched. As to where either would actually appear on the list, I have no idea.
I suspect Braden will end up a reliever, and probably a pretty good one. He looked good in bullpen duty last season.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 11:29 AM PST
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How does options work?
I mean Carlos Gonzalez has never been in the majors, but only has 2 left?
by jahs34 on
Jan 4, 2008 4:08 PM PST
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Options is about the 40 man roster
When a young guy like Gonzalez is placed on the 40 man roster his team is given three options. If the team sends the player to the minors after ST they've exercised the 1st option. They can call him up from the minors and send him back down as often as they want during the year or they cannot call him up at all, the option is in play.
If Gonzalez was on Arizona's 40 man last year then he's used 1 option.
Don't worry too much about it though. If Gonzalez hasn't forced his way to Oakland by the time he runs out of options he's already busted!
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 4:41 PM PST
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Excatly
That's why I think Barack Obama will win the democratic nomination......because he's also white........like Chavvy.
by mrod on
Jan 4, 2008 10:50 AM PST
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But
Hilary is also a man. Somewhat like Jeter.
by methodrampage on
Jan 4, 2008 12:52 PM PST
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This rebuilding
has made me really understand the genius of Billy Beane.
This, in my opinion, is going to be his masterwork.
Also, I'm no expert, but I've seen Chris Denorfia's minor league (and major league) numbers, and they're outstanding. How come nobody's talking about the Great Chris Denorfia?
by King Richard on Jan 4, 2008 9:37 AM PST 0 recs
Paul Thomas talks about him all the time
Denorfia definitely deserves a 500 at bat season to see whether his minor league numbers translate. He should get that chance in 2008 now that the A's traded Swisher.
by BlameChannel53 on
Jan 4, 2008 10:08 AM PST
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Man on Fire
A man can be an artist... in anything, baseball, food, whatever. It depends on how good he is at it. Beane's art is building a team. He's about to paint his masterpiece.
by ak_A on
Jan 4, 2008 10:31 AM PST
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Umm...
Creasy Bear bled to death in the back seat. The Interpol guy had to step in and finish the job.
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 11:00 AM PST
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Agreed...
Excellent diary Nico that is well founded, especially regarding the '09 free agent class. Also, not to be overlooked will be the better '08 drafting position and for that matter the '09 draft should have the A's with the fattest farm system in baseball. 2009 will be the beginning of our long rise and the beginning of the Angels demise!
Go A's!
by kcir on Jan 4, 2008 9:40 AM PST 0 recs
Can I pull a Zonis too?
I would say that Kotsay is likely out the door, and if he is still around, the only reason to play him is to give him enough value so that someone takes him from us.
Otherwise, I think we start the season a few different ways.
Either we have Gonzalez jump to the Majors and start in CF.
Or
Sweeney and Denorfia battle for the Centerfield job.
The bonus that comes from that is we can possibly get even more trade value, as when Gonzalez does come up, we have established Centerfielders who can either backup the team in the 4th OF role or be dealt for another prospect to make room for Gonzalez.
by Zonis on Jan 4, 2008 9:47 AM PST 0 recs
I think Gonzalez will fight for a
Street/Buck like jump to the bigs through a great spring training showing, because while he's only 22 he also does have 5 minor league seasons under his belt. But I think Kotsay will be on the Opening Day roster, because he probably has to play well in April-May to be sought by anyone - I foresee him being traded, or DFA, around May 15-30.
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 9:50 AM PST
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The only problem I have with that is
our roster (and Bench) will likely be full come Opening Day, with too many players for too little slots. Kotsay, Johnson, Meyer, Eveland, Crosby and maybe even Denorfia can't be sent down because they are out of options or under contract. And for all I know, Murphy might be out of options as well.
by Zonis on
Jan 4, 2008 9:53 AM PST
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He is
I would correct you, though-- Crosby can definitely be sent down, because there's no way in hell anyone would claim a contract that bad on waivers. And if they do, so much the better for Oakland.
Denorfia has an option remaining, because he spent all of '07 on the major league roster (sort of-- he was on the 60-day DL).
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 10:46 AM PST
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What happened with him anyway?
Is he even still in the organization?
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 12:54 PM PST
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He still appears on the Rivercats roster
at rivercats.com.
I assume it's up to date, since Gio Gonzalez is on there, too.
by iglew on
Jan 4, 2008 2:03 PM PST
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Crosby = $2.55M
Suggesting that "there's no way in hell anyone would claim a contract that bad on waivers" is a bit of a stretch. Don't let your interest in this team and it's self-imposed budget cause you to lose sight of the fact that his contract was structured by Billy Beane so that it would be a bargain by now. There is a chance that it could be that IF Crosby could be healthy and perform well.
by bvank on
Jan 4, 2008 2:14 PM PST
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Wrong
Crosby's contract is for $3.5 million in 2008 and $5.25 million in 2009.
Gauranteed.
Would you sign someone to a 2 year/$8.75 million contract after they've missed large chunks of the last 3 seasons?
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 2:23 PM PST
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The A's would: Milton Bradley
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 2:43 PM PST
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Bradley was close
But he was signed to 2 1-year deals at $3 and $4 million a pop. Plus he had shown he could actually hit a baseball.
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 2:46 PM PST
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I'd be fine with signing Bartolo Colon to that
amount of money for 2 years.
The difference between the two being, obviously, that Bartolo Colon is actually good when he's healthy, while Crosby has basically been garbage.
As I've said before, players who are below replacement level have zero value no matter how much (or how little) time they miss due to injuries.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 3:14 PM PST
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Colon doesn't qualify
He only missed large chunks of the past 2 seasons.
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 3:17 PM PST
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But never breakfast or lunch
By the way, enjoy my post above - it's about as close as I'll ever get to defending Crosby!
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 3:20 PM PST
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The Bradley comment?
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 3:22 PM PST
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It doesn't take much to defend Crosby ...
... you could probably handle it with only 2 infielders and 1 or 2 outfielders.
by monkeyball on
Jan 4, 2008 3:24 PM PST
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Definetly need a catcher in the mix
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 3:28 PM PST
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only need a C with 2 strikes
Bring one OF in behind the plate to catch so Cros doesn't get to 1B on the K/WP.
by monkeyball on
Jan 4, 2008 3:35 PM PST
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Someone's got to catch
the first two pitches Crosby would swing at.
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 3:39 PM PST
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why bother? The A's won't run
by monkeyball on
Jan 4, 2008 4:16 PM PST
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Or often just a catcher.
Yes, grover, I was referring to the Bradley comment.
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 3:29 PM PST
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Interesting defense
Never mentioned the guy once.
I like it.
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 3:38 PM PST
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Now THAT'S funny
by baseballgirl on
Jan 4, 2008 4:39 PM PST
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Middling Infield
In the minors, we seem to have no real GOOD player depth at SS, 2B or 3B. We have roleplayers, but no real outstanding prospects.
Which leads me to believe that if we don't make a deal, such as dealing Chavez to LAD in a package to land LaRoche and/or Hu, that we will see Chavez at 3B for more years to come, and that the A's might go the All Defense-No Offense route at Middle Infield, likely with Petit at Shortstop and either Murphy or Pennington at 2B come mid 2008.
Middleinfield prospects, that is to say, GOOD Middle Infield prospects who can both field AND hit (The ARods, the Jeters, the Tejadas, the Garciaparas of the world) are very hard to find and maybe harder to acquire. The Devil Rays have one, and Hu might be a decent bet for the Dodgers, but I don't know if we can acquire one ourselves.
Though I still like the idea of a Blanton trade to Seattle with a subsequent conversion of Adam Jones back to Short Stop might be a good idea.
by Zonis on Jan 4, 2008 9:51 AM PST 0 recs
For this reason, I favor
extending Ellis rather than trading him. He's the type of player (smart, fundamental) who probably won't decline as much mid-30s - likely a good choice for an extension given his position and our lack of prospects there.
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 9:54 AM PST
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+1
yeah. I have much less problem with sticking with Petit, Crosby, or Murphy (or Sellers, Pennington, Horton) in SS if we have a good 2B. I'm much less worried about the lack of a perfect SS prospect in our system than I am the lack of a good 2B prospect.
For that reason I favor extending Ellis too.
by jakarta on
Jan 4, 2008 10:44 AM PST
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Ellis . . .
. . . may not want to stay on a team thats not winning. He will need a multiyear contract. Say 3+ years.
by jarforcefatherofforce on
Jan 4, 2008 7:06 PM PST
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Murphy at second would be a real waste
His primary defensive asset is his arm, which is (in scout-talk) plus-plus.
He'll be best used in a platoon/super-utility role in years to come. Whether that platoon is with Melillo, Pennington or Hannahan, all of whom have some issues against lefty pitching (yes, I know Pennington is a nominal switch-hitter-- look up his splits), I can't say.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 10:36 AM PST
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If Crosby is healthy during spring training, I
would get Murphy as many reps at 3rd as possible, he has a strong enough arm, but does he have the reflex, and reaction time to play 3rd.
by theblackpearl on
Jan 4, 2008 10:53 AM PST
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I agree with your thinking
Fernando Hernandez, our 23-year-old Rule 5 pick and former White Sox AA pitcher, is probably too old for this team.
by jubjub on Jan 4, 2008 9:52 AM PST 0 recs
Yup - make that
a Hernandez, a Rodriguez, two Gonzalez', and three Garcias (all the same guy) acquired so far this Winter!
by Nico on
Jan 4, 2008 9:56 AM PST
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Happens to me all the time
"Hey Sanchez!.....I mean Garcia!.......errr I mean Delgado!........ahh whatever the hell your name is!"
-Rodriguez
by mrod on
Jan 4, 2008 10:57 AM PST
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I agree wholeheartedly
I don't think that Beane was aiming for a five-year rebuilding. He was looking at having the worst year for this team be 2008 and then have the team close to coming back into contention in 2009 with the real team poised to be among the American League elite in 2010.
And hopefully the team learned a lot from these last few seasons specifically in terms of how to prevent injuries. It's like a brand new reset and a chance to start over. The thing is you want to build towards greatness, you don't want to revel in mediocrity and just hope and pray you can stay healthy and hang with the other teams.
Now the A's just need to make a smart draft choice or two this year, hopefully get some value for a rebuilt Chavez and Kotsay (although not at the cost of giving Denorfia experience).
by Blez on Jan 4, 2008 9:57 AM PST 0 recs
so...
is 2008 going more closely resemble 1997 or 1998? i'm saying '97, praying for '98.
by mk on Jan 4, 2008 10:34 AM PST 0 recs
I don't think 2009 is in the cards
The best pitchers we got in these deals will either still be in the minors (Anderson definitely, DLS likely), or rookies who probably won't do that well. Cahill and Rodriguez will also probably not be up in time, and Blanton will likely be gone... C. Gonzalez probably won't hit that much since he still has a lot of improving to do. Plus, anything we get out of Carter and Cunningham won't come in 2009. So... I think we're looking at a rough year that year.
by mikeA on Jan 4, 2008 10:36 AM PST 0 recs
Cunningham reached AA last year
He would have to tank Sacto to not be up by mid-2009.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 10:41 AM PST
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Yeah, he's a little older than I thought
by mikeA on
Jan 4, 2008 10:53 AM PST
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The more I look at next year's team
The more it doesn't even look that terrible. I know major parts of it will probably still be jettisoned, but if everything actually broke right for that group (for a change)? They could finish with the same or better record that they did last year.
by jeepers on Jan 4, 2008 10:44 AM PST 0 recs
Well, sure
The typical luck "range" for a team is about 12 games (from 6 under their true ability to 6 over). 12 games is basically the equivalent of replacing an outfield of three Juan Pierres with an outfield of three Curtis Grandersons. That's a lot.
Since last season's A's were clearly at the bottom end of the spectrum luckwise, a "lucky" '08 team could easily surpass that record even with inferior talent.
by PaulThomas on
Jan 4, 2008 10:50 AM PST
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Let's not talk about things breaking
right or wrong.
by methodrampage on
Jan 4, 2008 12:55 PM PST
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Never underestimate the value
of a player knowing he has a chance to get to the Bigs.
That is why every year guys come out of nowhere to be successful because a spot opened up for them and they got a real chance. The A's have created a wide open environment for guys to get motivated because they know a place is there to be had. Before the season last year Travis Buck was a certainty to play in Sacramento for at least another year because "he wasn't ready".
Cust lingered in the minors for 6 or 7 years, not major league quality they said, well he did just fine although he drove me crazy with the K's. I think there will be a lot of surprises in store for A's fans this spring, I for one am looking forward to it, think a trip to Phoenix is in order in March.
by china bob on Jan 4, 2008 10:50 AM PST 0 recs
Buck
The A's ran out of bodies to play in the outfield, that's why Buck got his chance.
by grover on
Jan 4, 2008 11:03 AM PST
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No chance of THAT happening again in Oakland.
by jeepers on
Jan 4, 2008 12:27 PM PST
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also, let's not get too excited
til they've had a chance to adjust to opposing pitchers' adjustments.


